AI Stock Basket All projects

Independent research · Model portfolio

The intelligence
behind the future.

An AI value-chain basket. From the chips that power intelligence to the applications that put it to work.

Explore the basket

Research only. Not investment advice. Do your own research.

01 / The thesis

One theme.
An entire value chain.

AI depends on more than a single breakthrough. It needs advanced manufacturing, compute, memory, networks, power, and software that turns capability into demand.

AI Stock Basket organizes that ecosystem into distinct investment layers, with explicit target weights and a reserve for qualified opportunities.

Model at a glance

Equity positions
48
AI investment layers
10
Allocation framework
Defense / Neutral / Attack
Reserve vehicle
BOXX
Snapshot date
2026-10-09
Model version
1.49.0

02 / Inside the basket

Follow the AI value chain.

Model targets as of 2026-10-09.
Weights are percentages of the whole basket.

0111.5%

Manufacturing & design

TSM · ASML · AMAT · LRCX · KLAC · AEHR · SNPS · TER

0220.5%

Compute

NVDA · AVGO · AMD · INTC · QCOM · ARM

0312%

Memory & storage

MU · SNDK · WDC

048.5%

Data movement

COHR · LITE · MRVL · ALAB · CRDO · GLW

054%

Power & cooling

VRT · VST · BE · MPWR · WOLF

065%

Cloud

AMZN · SPCX · NBIS

0712%

Applications

MSFT · ADBE · CRM · PLTR · DDOG

087%

Security

PANW · CRWD · OKTA · NET · ZS · FTNT

090.5%

Physical AI

TSLA

104%

Science

LLY · TEM · MRNA · SDGR · TWST

1115%

Reserve

BOXX

A ticker may appear in multiple sectors. Each sector allocation is a percentage of the whole basket; a ticker’s total target is the sum across sectors. Position counts and single-stock risk limits use unique tickers and their total weights.

Weights by sector

Sector allocations · 2026-10-09 · v1.49.0
SectorSector totalSymbolAllocation in sector
Manufacturing & design11.5%TSM4%
Manufacturing & design11.5%ASML1.5%
Manufacturing & design11.5%AMAT1.5%
Manufacturing & design11.5%LRCX1.5%
Manufacturing & design11.5%KLAC1.5%
Manufacturing & design11.5%AEHR0.5%
Manufacturing & design11.5%SNPS0.5%
Manufacturing & design11.5%TER0.5%
Compute20.5%NVDA9.5%
Compute20.5%AVGO4.5%
Compute20.5%AMD3.5%
Compute20.5%INTC1%
Compute20.5%QCOM1%
Compute20.5%ARM1%
Memory & storage12%MU8%
Memory & storage12%SNDK3%
Memory & storage12%WDC1%
Data movement8.5%COHR2%
Data movement8.5%LITE2.5%
Data movement8.5%MRVL1.5%
Data movement8.5%ALAB1.5%
Data movement8.5%CRDO0.5%
Data movement8.5%GLW0.5%
Power & cooling4%VRT2%
Power & cooling4%VST0.5%
Power & cooling4%BE0.5%
Power & cooling4%MPWR0.5%
Power & cooling4%WOLF0.5%
Cloud5%AMZN2.5%
Cloud5%SPCX1.5%
Cloud5%NBIS1%
Applications12%MSFT5.5%
Applications12%ADBE0.5%
Applications12%CRM2.5%
Applications12%PLTR2%
Applications12%DDOG1.5%
Security7%PANW1.5%
Security7%CRWD1.5%
Security7%OKTA1%
Security7%NET0.5%
Security7%ZS0.5%
Security7%FTNT2%
Physical AI0.5%TSLA0.5%
Science4%LLY1%
Science4%TEM1.5%
Science4%MRNA0.5%
Science4%SDGR0.5%
Science4%TWST0.5%
Reserve15%CASH / BOXX15%

Total weights by ticker

Aggregated ticker targets · 2026-10-09 · v1.49.0
SymbolSector breakdownTotal target weightLatest priceDaily changeQuote time
ADBEApplications 0.5%0.5%$241.05+3.56%
finnhub+yfinance
AEHRManufacturing & design 0.5%0.5%$87.21-2.42%
finnhub+yfinance
ALABData movement 1.5%1.5%$347.05-9.21%
finnhub+yfinance
AMATManufacturing & design 1.5%1.5%$509.57-2.13%
finnhub+yfinance
AMDCompute 3.5%3.5%$620.68-3.90%
finnhub+yfinance
AMZNCloud 2.5%2.5%$254.06-2.25%
finnhub+yfinance
ARMCompute 1%1%$275.29-6.48%
finnhub+yfinance
ASMLManufacturing & design 1.5%1.5%$1769.79-1.95%
finnhub+yfinance
AVGOCompute 4.5%4.5%$360.14-4.35%
finnhub+yfinance
BEPower & cooling 0.5%0.5%$272.82-6.34%
finnhub+yfinance
CASH / BOXXReserve 15%15%$118.48-0.04%
finnhub+yfinance
COHRData movement 2%2%$302.35-9.63%
finnhub+yfinance
CRDOData movement 0.5%0.5%$211.86-3.70%
finnhub+yfinance
CRMApplications 2.5%2.5%$227.80+1.44%
finnhub+yfinance
CRWDSecurity 1.5%1.5%$263.01-0.92%
finnhub+yfinance
DDOGApplications 1.5%1.5%$273.80+0.91%
finnhub+yfinance
FTNTSecurity 2%2%$189.10-0.10%
finnhub+yfinance
GLWData movement 0.5%0.5%$152.83-6.38%
finnhub+yfinance
INTCCompute 1%1%$107.08-5.34%
finnhub+yfinance
KLACManufacturing & design 1.5%1.5%$196.72-0.06%
finnhub+yfinance
LITEData movement 2.5%2.5%$1048.60-5.62%
finnhub+yfinance
LLYScience 1%1%$1169.60-1.61%
finnhub+yfinance
LRCXManufacturing & design 1.5%1.5%$320.59-2.71%
finnhub+yfinance
MPWRPower & cooling 0.5%0.5%$1369.80-3.94%
finnhub+yfinance
MRNAScience 0.5%0.5%$197.00+0.26%
finnhub+yfinance
MRVLData movement 1.5%1.5%$274.66-3.52%
finnhub+yfinance
MSFTApplications 5.5%5.5%$522.61-1.35%
finnhub+yfinance
MUMemory & storage 8%8%$1035.84-4.79%
finnhub+yfinance
NBISCloud 1%1%$219.71-7.35%
finnhub+yfinance
NETSecurity 0.5%0.5%$341.89-0.31%
finnhub+yfinance
NVDACompute 9.5%9.5%$230.48-2.94%
finnhub+yfinance
OKTASecurity 1%1%$220.21+1.01%
finnhub+yfinance
PANWSecurity 1.5%1.5%$398.50-1.74%
finnhub+yfinance
PLTRApplications 2%2%$198.78+2.40%
finnhub+yfinance
QCOMCompute 1%1%$176.01-0.63%
finnhub+yfinance
SDGRScience 0.5%0.5%$26.39-3.30%
finnhub+yfinance
SNDKMemory & storage 3%3%$1609.46-4.90%
finnhub+yfinance
SNPSManufacturing & design 0.5%0.5%$497.75-0.98%
finnhub+yfinance
SPCXCloud 1.5%1.5%$160.57-4.19%
finnhub+yfinance
TEMScience 1.5%1.5%$69.28-1.52%
finnhub+yfinance
TERManufacturing & design 0.5%0.5%$398.72-3.17%
finnhub+yfinance
TSLAPhysical AI 0.5%0.5%$375.00-0.74%
finnhub+yfinance
TSMManufacturing & design 4%4%$457.99-3.01%
finnhub+yfinance
TWSTScience 0.5%0.5%$152.05-2.31%
finnhub+yfinance
VRTPower & cooling 2%2%$243.73-1.12%
finnhub+yfinance
VSTPower & cooling 0.5%0.5%$156.14-6.35%
finnhub+yfinance
WDCMemory & storage 1%1%$393.31-2.99%
finnhub+yfinance
WOLFPower & cooling 0.5%0.5%$31.02-1.12%
finnhub+yfinance
ZSSecurity 0.5%0.5%$216.81+1.53%
finnhub+yfinance

Latest available quotes may be delayed. Quote times are shown with their UTC offset; prices do not refresh while this page is open. Page data refreshed 2026-10-09T07:51:26.933697+00:00.

These are research model targets, not verified account holdings or instructions to trade. Allocations can change; this page is a dated snapshot.

Company performance / Market snapshot

The companies behind each layer.

Completed close

Model constituents grouped by sector. The range marker shows where the close sits between the 52-week low and high. Trend compares that same close with its 20-, 50-, and 200-session simple moving averages.

↑ Above↓ Below= Atthe moving average · Hover or focus a badge for its value and distance.

Manufacturing & design

8 companies
SymbolClose52-week rangeTrend · SMA
TSM$457.99
20 50 200
ASML$1769.79
20 50 200
AMAT$509.57
20 50 200
LRCX$320.59
20 50 200
KLAC$196.72
20 50 200
AEHR$87.21
20 50 200
SNPS$497.75
20 50 200
TER$398.72
20 50 200

Compute

6 companies
SymbolClose52-week rangeTrend · SMA
NVDA$230.48
20 50 200
AVGO$360.14
20 50 200
AMD$620.68
20 50 200
INTC$107.08
20 50 200
QCOM$176.01
20 50 200
ARM$275.29
20 50 200

Memory & storage

3 companies
SymbolClose52-week rangeTrend · SMA
MU$1035.84
20 50 200
SNDK$1609.46
20 50 200
WDC$393.31
20 50 200

Data movement

6 companies
SymbolClose52-week rangeTrend · SMA
COHR$302.35
20 50 200
LITE$1048.60
20 50 200
MRVL$274.66
20 50 200
ALAB$347.05
20 50 200
CRDO$211.86
20 50 200
GLW$152.83
20 50 200

Power & cooling

5 companies
SymbolClose52-week rangeTrend · SMA
VRT$243.73
20 50 200
VST$156.14
20 50 200
BE$272.82
20 50 200
MPWR$1369.80
20 50 200
WOLF$31.02
20 50 200

Cloud

3 companies
SymbolClose52-week rangeTrend · SMA
AMZN$254.06
20 50 200
SPCX$160.57Short historySince 2026-06-12
20 50 — 200
NBIS$219.71
20 50 200

Applications

5 companies
SymbolClose52-week rangeTrend · SMA
MSFT$522.61
20 50 200
ADBE$241.05
20 50 200
CRM$227.80
20 50 200
PLTR$198.78
20 50 200
DDOG$273.80
20 50 200

Security

6 companies
SymbolClose52-week rangeTrend · SMA
PANW$398.50
20 50 200
CRWD$263.01
20 50 200
OKTA$220.21
20 50 200
NET$341.89
20 50 200
ZS$216.81
20 50 200
FTNT$189.10
20 50 200

Physical AI

1 company
SymbolClose52-week rangeTrend · SMA
TSLA$375.00
20 50 200

Science

5 companies
SymbolClose52-week rangeTrend · SMA
LLY$1169.60
20 50 200
TEM$69.28
20 50 200
MRNA$197.00
20 50 200
SDGR$26.39
20 50 200
TWST$152.05
20 50 200
Range and trend methodology

Public market data from ofclient. Highs, lows, closes and moving averages use the same dividend-adjusted price basis. The 52-week range uses daily highs and lows from 2025-10-09 through the completed session shown above. Each SMA includes that session and requires every session in its window. Short histories and missing data remain unavailable; no prior prices are carried forward. A company allocated to several sectors appears in each sector. The reserve and research candidates are excluded. These are market comparisons, not account returns or buy/sell signals.

03 / The framework

Research first. Rules throughout.

01

Map the opportunity

Evaluate demand, bottlenecks, pricing power, and replacement risk across the AI value chain. An AI label alone is not an investment thesis.

02

Size with intent

Set targets from fundamentals, relative strength, and entry conditions. Review single-name concentration, high-beta exposure, and speculative risk separately.

03

Keep a reserve

Adjust equity and reserve targets through a sector-trend framework. Capital without a qualified opportunity remains in the reserve.

Defense

60% equities 40% reserve

Neutral

75% equities 25% reserve

Attack

85% equities 15% reserve

Mode changes require confirmed signals. Reserve allocations do not guarantee a maximum drawdown or prevent losses.

Execution policy · Updated September 30, 2026

Adjust weights through ongoing buys.

Routine weight adjustments use ongoing contributions. When the adopted mode and basket gates permit additions, Fidelity Smart Buys directs an authorized amount toward underweight holdings. Overweight positions are not sold to fund a routine rebalance; without eligible funding, weights may remain away from their targets.

Downgrades require three consecutive completed trading sessions with candidates below the adopted mode; the highest candidate sets the proposed mode. Additions pause on the first downgrade signal. Defense-to-Neutral recovery still requires three sessions, and Neutral-to-Attack requires five.

Execution gates, sale reviews and sector rules

The larger of 25% of target weight or 2 percentage points remains the drift review threshold, not a trade trigger. Ordinary target reductions and monthly momentum changes guide future buys; they do not create matching sale orders. Smart Buys may also fund underweights within this review threshold.

Separately reviewed weak-stock trims, verified stops, thesis failures, hard risk limits and confirmed mode risk reductions still apply. A monthly review may conclude that no trim is needed.

Before a loss sale, review tax lots and purchases of substantially identical securities within 30 calendar days before and after the sale, including relevant accounts, Smart Buys, recurring investments and dividend reinvestment. A resulting underweight must not trigger an automatic buyback. Buying alone does not rule out a wash sale involving another sale; missing trade history leaves tax review pending. See IRS Publication 550: Wash Sales.

Additions require no pending downgrade and QQQ and SOXX closes above their 20-day averages. Smart Buys follows approved targets; each contribution need not buy every holding.

Individual-stock moving-average breaks prompt review; they do not automatically block a purchase or trigger a sale. Verified thesis failures, explicit stops and hard risk-limit breaches must be resolved in the target list and execution plan before the next basket purchase.

Smart Buys distributes the approved amount; BOXX reserves, unused funding tranches and account limits still govern how much can be invested. Authorized reserve deployment continues under those gates. Routine BOXX replenishment uses explicitly added funds, not sales of winners; the reference-high, funded-reserve and ledger requirements for a new cycle remain in place. This policy does not establish that a purchase is currently permitted or has occurred.

Review every sector when the mode changes.

Each mode-change proposal reviews all model equity sectors. The default comparison uses 1- and 3-month adjusted-price momentum (21 and 63 trading sessions), weighted by each sector’s current model targets at a common completed close. Both returns and their average are reported alongside business growth, risks and proposed weight changes. Candidates and BOXX are excluded; incomplete sector data cannot support a full rotation ranking.

Upgrades direct more weight toward stronger sectors with positive momentum in both windows and an intact investment thesis. Downgrades trim weaker sectors first to meet the lower equity budget; even strong sectors may lose absolute weight. Exact targets require approval and remain subject to position and risk limits. Monthly momentum adjustments within a sector retain their separate 6- and 12-month method; new base weights reset affected offsets.

Sector reviews are manual. This policy does not establish a current ranking, completed trade or performance result. Smart Buys does not set sector weights.

How Fidelity Smart Buys works

04 / Actual holdings

The portfolio, as held.

Month-end review: after the last US trading session of each month, reconcile actual holdings against approved targets, then review trim candidates using a verified snapshot from that close. Reviews are manual and produce proposals; a missing snapshot leaves the actual-holdings audit pending. Weekly snapshot updates continue.

Invested stocks + BOXX · broker snapshot · · America/Los_Angeles

Snapshot overview

  • Unrealized gain+8.70%
  • Equities85.34%
  • Reserve / BOXX14.66%

Holdings history & comparison

Historical unrealized gain percentage3 observed snapshots. Values compare the current open holdings with their cost basis. Missing observations are not connected. Exact observations are in the table below.10.0%7.2%4.3%1.5%-1.3%2026-09-18: +3.43%2026-09-28: +6.92%2026-10-04: +8.70%2026-09-182026-10-04
Observed snapshots · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-04.

Unrealized gain is not total investment return. It excludes realized gains, distributions and cash flows; changes in open holdings also affect the series.

Historical observations
Unrealized gain / total cost basis of open holdings
SnapshotUnrealized P&L
2026-09-18+3.43%
2026-09-28+6.92%
2026-10-04+8.70%
Compare actual & target weights
Ten largest positions · share of invested stocks + BOXX
ActualModel target
  1. BOXX14.66% / 15.0%
  2. NVDA9.45% / 9.5%
  3. MU7.69% / 8.0%
  4. MSFT5.44% / 5.5%
  5. AVGO4.51% / 4.5%
  6. TSM4.05% / 4.0%
  7. SNDK3.74% / 3.0%
  8. AMD3.54% / 3.5%
  9. LITE2.64% / 2.5%
  10. VRT2.49% / 2.0%

All holdings & target gaps

Actual weights: 2026-10-04 · Model targets: 2026-10-09, v1.49.0. Gap is actual minus target, in percentage points (pp).
SymbolActualTargetGap (pp)Unrealized P&L
ADBE0.96%0.5%+0.46-7.94%
AEHR0.52%0.5%+0.02+14.75%
ALAB1.49%1.5%-0.01+31.00%
AMAT1.59%1.5%+0.09+23.80%
AMD3.54%3.5%+0.04+26.31%
AMZN2.47%2.5%-0.03-0.35%
ARM1.03%1.0%+0.03+22.29%
ASML1.52%1.5%+0.02+11.26%
AVGO4.51%4.5%+0.01+1.67%
BE1.02%0.5%+0.52+8.37%
BOXX14.66%15.0%-0.34+0.21%
COHR2.08%2.0%+0.08+18.05%
CRDO0.53%0.5%+0.03+16.15%
CRM2.42%2.5%-0.08-4.70%
CRWD1.49%1.5%-0.01+18.57%
DDOG1.01%1.5%-0.49+20.38%
FTNT1.49%2.0%-0.51+6.18%
GLW0.50%0.5%+0.00+4.45%
INTC0.98%1.0%-0.02+24.28%
KLAC1.54%1.5%+0.04+21.06%
LITE2.64%2.5%+0.14+23.28%
LLY1.67%1.0%+0.67-2.51%
LRCX1.58%1.5%+0.08+24.62%
MPWR0.00%0.5%-0.50Unavailable
MRNA0.52%0.5%+0.02+30.71%
MRVL1.50%1.5%+0.00+16.54%
MSFT5.44%5.5%-0.06+4.51%
MU7.69%8.0%-0.31+13.61%
NBIS1.02%1.0%+0.02+12.15%
NET0.48%0.5%-0.02+5.74%
NVDA9.45%9.5%-0.05+8.12%
OKTA0.98%1.0%-0.02+16.44%
PANW1.50%1.5%+0.00+12.55%
PLTR1.94%2.0%-0.06+7.35%
QCOM0.98%1.0%-0.02+0.52%
SDGR0.48%0.5%-0.02+4.28%
SNDK3.74%3.0%+0.74+8.82%
SNPS0.54%0.5%+0.04+24.98%
SPCX1.57%1.5%+0.07+9.17%
TEM1.47%1.5%-0.03+12.01%
TER0.54%0.5%+0.04+23.15%
TSLA0.51%0.5%+0.01+4.00%
TSM4.05%4.0%+0.05+11.37%
TWST0.41%0.5%-0.09+0.36%
VRT2.49%2.0%+0.49+2.37%
VST0.98%0.5%+0.48-0.22%
WDC0.00%1.0%-1.00Unavailable
WOLF0.00%0.5%-0.50Unavailable
ZS0.48%0.5%-0.02+0.71%

Broker snapshot, not total return. Weights exclude uninvested cash and pending activity; amounts and shares remain private.

About the holdings snapshot

Weights cover invested stocks and BOXX only. Figures are rounded and update only when a new verified broker snapshot is available. Unrealized gain compares open holdings with their cost basis; it excludes realized gains, distributions and cash flows. Changes in open holdings also affect the history. The date above remains the last verified snapshot date.

05 / Hypothetical YTD

If you started the year with $1,000.

The latest model version's hypothetical $1,000 YTD backcast appears here. View every recorded version and its daily values ↗

AI Stock Basket vs QQQ, SOXX & SMH

$1,000 invested in each at the start of the year · buy and hold · USD

  • AI Stock Basket $1,930.96+$930.96 (+93.10%) YTD
  • QQQ $1,221.09+$221.09 (+22.11%) YTD
  • SOXX $1,873.70+$873.70 (+87.37%) YTD
  • SMH $1,686.25+$686.25 (+68.63%) YTD
Year-to-date value of $1,000 invested in AI Stock Basket, QQQ, SOXX and SMHAvailable series start at $1,000 at the 2025-12-31 close, through 2026-10-08. Missing series are marked unavailable above. Exact daily dollar values are in the table below.$2,304$1,924$1,544$1,163$7832025-12-312026-10-08
Frozen model v1.49.0 · 2026 YTD through 2026-10-08 close · starting value $1,000 at the 2025-12-31 close. Data refreshed 2026-10-09T07:16:15.629810+00:00.

Daily comparison data

Investment value in USD; each starts with $1,000
DateAI Stock BasketQQQSOXXSMH
2025-12-31$1,000.00$1,000.00$1,000.00$1,000.00
2026-01-02$1,028.59$998.06$1,041.64$1,036.57
2026-01-05$1,031.03$1,005.99$1,056.15$1,048.48
2026-01-06$1,064.74$1,014.83$1,090.32$1,076.33
2026-01-07$1,063.92$1,015.81$1,078.83$1,069.11
2026-01-08$1,037.72$1,010.03$1,061.20$1,052.34
2026-01-09$1,059.78$1,020.09$1,091.75$1,080.78
2026-01-12$1,069.93$1,020.93$1,096.96$1,084.77
2026-01-13$1,071.74$1,019.42$1,106.76$1,087.19
2026-01-14$1,058.01$1,008.53$1,102.11$1,078.36
2026-01-15$1,071.82$1,012.16$1,119.77$1,100.74
2026-01-16$1,082.54$1,011.31$1,137.21$1,111.79
2026-01-20$1,073.93$989.83$1,120.21$1,084.03
2026-01-21$1,099.63$1,003.21$1,156.04$1,116.07
2026-01-22$1,108.32$1,010.50$1,157.80$1,118.54
2026-01-23$1,101.45$1,013.69$1,144.65$1,110.96
2026-01-26$1,097.67$1,018.15$1,139.20$1,107.43
2026-01-27$1,123.03$1,027.38$1,165.80$1,130.84
2026-01-28$1,141.62$1,030.78$1,196.95$1,156.89
2026-01-29$1,129.44$1,024.61$1,199.17$1,159.36
2026-01-30$1,107.10$1,012.31$1,149.93$1,120.32
2026-02-02$1,133.33$1,019.26$1,171.14$1,132.84
2026-02-03$1,120.00$1,003.60$1,147.73$1,104.27
2026-02-04$1,067.83$986.07$1,097.06$1,060.78
2026-02-05$1,054.64$971.87$1,098.56$1,058.15
2026-02-06$1,105.01$992.41$1,157.26$1,115.29
2026-02-09$1,120.60$1,000.02$1,171.41$1,129.18
2026-02-10$1,106.27$995.38$1,166.96$1,123.93
2026-02-11$1,132.48$998.05$1,196.08$1,151.75
2026-02-12$1,118.26$977.75$1,167.19$1,127.68
2026-02-13$1,121.37$979.83$1,177.69$1,132.15
2026-02-17$1,116.73$978.82$1,175.83$1,131.56
2026-02-18$1,131.54$986.13$1,188.51$1,145.56
2026-02-19$1,137.84$982.35$1,181.60$1,139.03
2026-02-20$1,146.25$991.05$1,193.52$1,152.44
2026-02-23$1,137.72$979.00$1,184.86$1,146.47
2026-02-24$1,147.82$989.52$1,202.19$1,163.91
2026-02-25$1,169.03$1,003.86$1,221.98$1,183.35
2026-02-26$1,149.23$991.75$1,184.79$1,144.06
2026-02-27$1,134.71$988.57$1,169.82$1,128.40
2026-03-02$1,147.86$989.87$1,169.02$1,128.45
2026-03-03$1,106.09$979.28$1,111.67$1,085.89
2026-03-04$1,131.54$994.20$1,134.12$1,108.21
2026-03-05$1,123.15$991.21$1,121.57$1,097.80
2026-03-06$1,084.22$976.30$1,074.25$1,056.73
2026-03-09$1,127.51$989.34$1,116.95$1,095.08
2026-03-10$1,138.86$989.35$1,125.05$1,103.30
2026-03-11$1,153.75$989.22$1,135.95$1,113.57
2026-03-12$1,123.53$972.25$1,096.43$1,077.75
2026-03-13$1,129.76$966.48$1,100.18$1,075.53
2026-03-16$1,153.43$977.32$1,121.80$1,093.83
2026-03-17$1,165.02$982.09$1,130.53$1,102.05
2026-03-18$1,167.02$968.40$1,124.02$1,093.13
2026-03-19$1,177.04$965.34$1,130.37$1,096.60
2026-03-20$1,134.34$947.50$1,104.81$1,068.34
2026-03-23$1,142.88$958.38$1,118.37$1,086.72
2026-03-24$1,146.93$951.83$1,133.09$1,095.69
2026-03-25$1,147.64$958.09$1,147.15$1,107.99
2026-03-26$1,092.49$935.22$1,092.65$1,057.51
2026-03-27$1,078.31$916.95$1,074.81$1,039.21
2026-03-30$1,039.49$909.94$1,029.32$1,006.66
2026-03-31$1,095.18$940.74$1,092.02$1,064.62
2026-04-01$1,128.97$952.36$1,124.85$1,088.41
2026-04-02$1,141.25$953.46$1,128.41$1,089.38
2026-04-06$1,147.67$959.19$1,143.32$1,099.55
2026-04-07$1,156.75$959.34$1,155.48$1,110.43
2026-04-08$1,213.38$987.86$1,230.71$1,174.35
2026-04-09$1,232.76$994.55$1,258.06$1,194.87
2026-04-10$1,244.34$995.98$1,284.54$1,213.12
2026-04-13$1,275.12$1,006.28$1,306.93$1,231.06
2026-04-14$1,303.77$1,024.55$1,333.18$1,255.10
2026-04-15$1,301.52$1,038.90$1,335.24$1,257.88
2026-04-16$1,317.17$1,043.90$1,348.83$1,262.88
2026-04-17$1,331.79$1,057.56$1,381.26$1,288.87
2026-04-20$1,334.74$1,054.20$1,387.37$1,288.31
2026-04-21$1,335.40$1,050.19$1,397.84$1,290.26
2026-04-22$1,380.20$1,067.76$1,434.62$1,324.05
2026-04-23$1,361.54$1,061.75$1,465.29$1,337.99
2026-04-24$1,408.02$1,082.05$1,533.74$1,406.27
2026-04-27$1,415.64$1,082.63$1,513.17$1,405.77
2026-04-28$1,369.06$1,071.74$1,457.68$1,363.98
2026-04-29$1,394.21$1,078.29$1,495.16$1,387.22
2026-04-30$1,415.03$1,088.35$1,533.20$1,407.05
2026-05-01$1,450.47$1,098.79$1,547.52$1,415.66
2026-05-04$1,469.05$1,096.72$1,535.26$1,407.24
2026-05-05$1,525.46$1,110.95$1,603.94$1,451.39
2026-05-06$1,570.92$1,134.03$1,684.15$1,526.56
2026-05-07$1,542.56$1,132.68$1,635.94$1,499.74
2026-05-08$1,630.12$1,159.23$1,728.78$1,573.15
2026-05-11$1,674.20$1,162.59$1,770.18$1,600.28
2026-05-12$1,629.81$1,152.73$1,714.45$1,558.46
2026-05-13$1,665.82$1,164.90$1,755.32$1,589.59
2026-05-14$1,668.61$1,173.18$1,761.10$1,605.92
2026-05-15$1,624.78$1,155.48$1,689.63$1,544.83
2026-05-18$1,574.48$1,150.51$1,647.60$1,516.56
2026-05-19$1,581.22$1,143.42$1,650.49$1,510.45
2026-05-20$1,623.62$1,162.36$1,728.81$1,567.93
2026-05-21$1,682.17$1,164.58$1,743.43$1,576.88
2026-05-22$1,682.45$1,169.52$1,785.36$1,600.31
2026-05-26$1,761.55$1,190.28$1,894.21$1,672.01
2026-05-27$1,751.44$1,188.93$1,873.91$1,653.57
2026-05-28$1,774.47$1,198.95$1,892.15$1,665.59
2026-05-29$1,806.04$1,203.37$1,890.85$1,663.09
2026-06-01$1,867.01$1,210.59$1,900.32$1,687.75
2026-06-02$1,917.48$1,216.16$2,010.27$1,755.50
2026-06-03$1,924.68$1,212.98$2,045.69$1,771.30
2026-06-04$1,887.72$1,207.12$2,002.63$1,742.51
2026-06-05$1,721.53$1,149.17$1,793.47$1,581.90
2026-06-08$1,786.67$1,167.12$1,898.73$1,660.96
2026-06-09$1,755.04$1,153.69$1,867.79$1,641.10
2026-06-10$1,712.23$1,130.64$1,799.25$1,585.29
2026-06-11$1,833.40$1,168.83$1,950.16$1,692.31
2026-06-12$1,862.18$1,175.71$1,981.13$1,721.49
2026-06-15$1,968.53$1,212.64$2,089.11$1,796.85
2026-06-16$1,887.54$1,189.60$1,965.42$1,710.49
2026-06-17$1,902.87$1,177.62$1,993.64$1,732.62
2026-06-18$2,005.78$1,207.13$2,125.68$1,832.34
2026-06-22$2,043.98$1,204.10$2,177.40$1,857.41
2026-06-23$1,891.99$1,164.45$2,005.81$1,727.29
2026-06-24$1,879.73$1,159.51$1,999.52$1,718.60
2026-06-25$1,997.96$1,168.91$2,078.31$1,768.47
2026-06-26$1,914.14$1,152.82$1,961.10$1,698.30
2026-06-29$1,966.28$1,181.47$2,042.24$1,754.87
2026-06-30$2,041.04$1,201.57$2,130.03$1,821.26
2026-07-01$1,914.78$1,183.25$1,993.54$1,722.88
2026-07-02$1,808.80$1,162.74$1,882.58$1,644.66
2026-07-06$1,838.12$1,179.42$1,933.07$1,678.01
2026-07-07$1,758.54$1,157.57$1,833.94$1,614.56
2026-07-08$1,785.96$1,160.85$1,868.32$1,646.63
2026-07-09$1,853.33$1,180.17$1,933.70$1,687.53
2026-07-10$1,847.84$1,183.80$1,932.51$1,696.69
2026-07-13$1,765.69$1,161.34$1,840.33$1,626.13
2026-07-14$1,814.59$1,174.31$1,887.90$1,666.93
2026-07-15$1,758.90$1,171.13$1,845.84$1,640.44
2026-07-16$1,671.84$1,151.87$1,763.50$1,579.76
2026-07-17$1,652.63$1,134.56$1,734.62$1,545.36
2026-07-20$1,665.60$1,135.75$1,742.36$1,551.75
2026-07-21$1,771.05$1,156.82$1,837.27$1,621.86
2026-07-22$1,760.83$1,150.91$1,846.68$1,629.72
2026-07-23$1,758.18$1,129.06$1,832.45$1,611.00
2026-07-24$1,670.17$1,116.45$1,751.90$1,558.30
2026-07-27$1,624.39$1,113.01$1,716.07$1,523.20
2026-07-28$1,537.31$1,102.19$1,633.73$1,470.58
2026-07-29$1,462.94$1,079.74$1,545.77$1,400.11
2026-07-30$1,614.32$1,115.34$1,677.17$1,496.40
2026-07-31$1,609.96$1,122.58$1,678.37$1,500.93
2026-08-03$1,656.19$1,142.29$1,687.64$1,514.62
2026-08-04$1,759.23$1,181.10$1,802.43$1,598.62
2026-08-05$1,729.38$1,170.41$1,764.17$1,581.93
2026-08-06$1,705.02$1,166.08$1,770.22$1,586.87
2026-08-07$1,726.10$1,179.76$1,805.95$1,618.03
2026-08-10$1,709.84$1,176.23$1,759.81$1,581.12
2026-08-11$1,722.25$1,172.29$1,775.80$1,590.90
2026-08-12$1,780.75$1,180.85$1,817.06$1,623.94
2026-08-13$1,818.78$1,194.51$1,830.79$1,635.85
2026-08-14$1,839.83$1,192.88$1,829.72$1,632.24
2026-08-17$1,880.24$1,190.92$1,858.64$1,649.60
2026-08-18$1,784.77$1,170.75$1,766.46$1,582.12
2026-08-19$1,772.54$1,168.42$1,727.50$1,557.55
2026-08-20$1,780.01$1,160.01$1,736.41$1,562.35
2026-08-21$1,779.47$1,164.11$1,728.76$1,556.16
2026-08-24$1,720.89$1,152.49$1,682.66$1,518.34
2026-08-25$1,748.60$1,159.67$1,708.85$1,543.39
2026-08-26$1,760.03$1,160.73$1,713.31$1,543.25
2026-08-27$1,801.01$1,176.63$1,746.65$1,591.09
2026-08-28$1,758.49$1,168.99$1,690.77$1,535.86
2026-08-31$1,782.16$1,169.53$1,698.81$1,545.64
2026-09-01$1,744.96$1,154.65$1,663.14$1,513.95
2026-09-02$1,744.64$1,157.26$1,666.90$1,528.56
2026-09-03$1,757.62$1,171.01$1,669.43$1,534.45
2026-09-04$1,824.25$1,173.12$1,728.13$1,574.46
2026-09-08$1,843.11$1,172.14$1,756.52$1,593.12
2026-09-09$1,852.72$1,168.79$1,768.49$1,594.67
2026-09-10$1,800.72$1,156.36$1,720.06$1,555.77
2026-09-11$1,804.31$1,166.46$1,752.10$1,578.68
2026-09-14$1,747.35$1,157.16$1,653.47$1,503.62
2026-09-15$1,747.84$1,149.59$1,659.38$1,505.32
2026-09-16$1,763.55$1,149.88$1,670.05$1,514.90
2026-09-17$1,825.42$1,169.79$1,726.74$1,556.69
2026-09-18$1,875.03$1,177.18$1,773.20$1,591.09
2026-09-21$1,931.79$1,211.11$1,860.59$1,655.04
2026-09-22$1,976.01$1,220.89$1,905.30$1,686.78
2026-09-23$1,953.55$1,210.68$1,881.81$1,669.98
2026-09-24$1,953.82$1,210.50$1,882.98$1,667.51
2026-09-25$1,965.04$1,216.06$1,904.96$1,684.28
2026-09-28$1,931.55$1,203.04$1,865.41$1,666.09
2026-09-29$1,955.39$1,205.32$1,887.53$1,685.22
2026-09-30$1,958.26$1,208.33$1,891.53$1,691.06
2026-10-01$1,989.15$1,212.02$1,917.11$1,715.52
2026-10-02$1,999.03$1,224.35$1,958.92$1,751.03
2026-10-05$2,008.49$1,235.17$1,960.95$1,760.20
2026-10-06$1,997.27$1,240.82$1,960.75$1,756.31
2026-10-07$1,995.39$1,237.67$1,938.69$1,735.57
2026-10-08$1,930.96$1,221.09$1,873.70$1,686.25

Hypothetical backcast with selection and look-ahead bias; not brokerage returns.

How the YTD comparison is calculated

The frozen model is applied from the start of the year, before adoption. The basket includes its BOXX reserve; each benchmark is fully invested in its ETF. Calculations use adjusted closes with no rebalancing, trading costs or taxes. SPCX’s frozen initial allocation stays in BOXX until the 2026-06-12 close, then switches to SPCX. Other missing history is not filled or dropped. Results update only when data is imported and the site is rebuilt.

Performance by sector

Hypothetical YTD returns by equity sector.

2026 YTD through 2026-10-08 close · baseline 2025-12-31 · model v1.49.0

  1. Memory & storage+330.64%
  2. Data movement+135.13%
  3. Science+133.21%
  4. Security+118.14%
  5. Manufacturing & design+78.52%
  6. Power & cooling+67.93%
  7. Compute+61.39%
  8. Cloud+37.96%
  9. Applications+14.56%
  10. Physical AI-16.61%

Hypothetical YTD returns on a shared percentage scale · 2025-12-31 to 2026-10-08

Manufacturing & design

+78.52% YTD
Manufacturing & design: +78.52% hypothetical YTD returnCumulative percentage return from 2025-12-31 through 2026-10-08, with the same scale as every sector. Model weights are normalized within this sector and held without rebalancing. Daily returns are in the table below.501.9%214.3%-73.3%2025-12-312026-10-08

Compute

+61.39% YTD
Compute: +61.39% hypothetical YTD returnCumulative percentage return from 2025-12-31 through 2026-10-08, with the same scale as every sector. Model weights are normalized within this sector and held without rebalancing. Daily returns are in the table below.501.9%214.3%-73.3%2025-12-312026-10-08

Memory & storage

+330.64% YTD
Memory & storage: +330.64% hypothetical YTD returnCumulative percentage return from 2025-12-31 through 2026-10-08, with the same scale as every sector. Model weights are normalized within this sector and held without rebalancing. Daily returns are in the table below.501.9%214.3%-73.3%2025-12-312026-10-08

Data movement

+135.13% YTD
Data movement: +135.13% hypothetical YTD returnCumulative percentage return from 2025-12-31 through 2026-10-08, with the same scale as every sector. Model weights are normalized within this sector and held without rebalancing. Daily returns are in the table below.501.9%214.3%-73.3%2025-12-312026-10-08

Power & cooling

+67.93% YTD
Power & cooling: +67.93% hypothetical YTD returnCumulative percentage return from 2025-12-31 through 2026-10-08, with the same scale as every sector. Model weights are normalized within this sector and held without rebalancing. Daily returns are in the table below.501.9%214.3%-73.3%2025-12-312026-10-08

Cloud

+37.96% YTD
Cloud: +37.96% hypothetical YTD returnCumulative percentage return from 2025-12-31 through 2026-10-08, with the same scale as every sector. Model weights are normalized within this sector and held without rebalancing. Daily returns are in the table below.501.9%214.3%-73.3%2025-12-312026-10-08

Applications

+14.56% YTD
Applications: +14.56% hypothetical YTD returnCumulative percentage return from 2025-12-31 through 2026-10-08, with the same scale as every sector. Model weights are normalized within this sector and held without rebalancing. Daily returns are in the table below.501.9%214.3%-73.3%2025-12-312026-10-08

Security

+118.14% YTD
Security: +118.14% hypothetical YTD returnCumulative percentage return from 2025-12-31 through 2026-10-08, with the same scale as every sector. Model weights are normalized within this sector and held without rebalancing. Daily returns are in the table below.501.9%214.3%-73.3%2025-12-312026-10-08

Physical AI

-16.61% YTD
Physical AI: -16.61% hypothetical YTD returnCumulative percentage return from 2025-12-31 through 2026-10-08, with the same scale as every sector. Model weights are normalized within this sector and held without rebalancing. Daily returns are in the table below.501.9%214.3%-73.3%2025-12-312026-10-08

Science

+133.21% YTD
Science: +133.21% hypothetical YTD returnCumulative percentage return from 2025-12-31 through 2026-10-08, with the same scale as every sector. Model weights are normalized within this sector and held without rebalancing. Daily returns are in the table below.501.9%214.3%-73.3%2025-12-312026-10-08

Daily sector returns

Cumulative return in percent from the 2025-12-31 close; unavailable sectors shown as —.
DateManufacturing & designComputeMemory & storageData movementPower & coolingCloudApplicationsSecurityPhysical AIScience
2025-12-31+0.00%+0.00%+0.00%+0.00%+0.00%+0.00%+0.00%-0.00%+0.00%+0.00%
2026-01-02+6.08%+2.05%+11.74%+5.14%+7.70%+0.56%-3.23%-2.45%-2.59%+3.15%
2026-01-05+10.21%+1.56%+10.87%+0.40%+7.33%+2.67%-2.48%-1.17%+0.43%+5.42%
2026-01-06+13.57%+1.07%+27.65%+3.29%+9.96%+6.16%-0.52%-0.05%-3.73%+11.70%
2026-01-07+11.37%+1.46%+26.22%+2.61%+7.81%+5.33%+0.81%+3.43%-4.07%+12.82%
2026-01-08+9.30%-0.95%+20.70%-4.66%+5.60%+6.63%-1.57%+0.77%-3.10%+9.71%
2026-01-09+14.94%+0.09%+30.05%-2.84%+9.24%+7.03%-1.98%+0.75%-1.05%+8.14%
2026-01-12+16.96%+0.46%+32.05%-1.46%+12.10%+9.08%-2.02%+0.71%-0.17%+11.50%
2026-01-13+16.34%+2.05%+30.39%+2.11%+14.26%+7.79%-4.43%+1.04%-0.56%+13.14%
2026-01-14+14.92%+0.71%+29.11%-2.46%+12.58%+5.68%-6.02%-0.19%-2.34%+14.75%
2026-01-15+20.22%+2.09%+32.47%-0.04%+15.46%+6.47%-7.02%-1.35%-2.48%+12.96%
2026-01-16+22.28%+2.54%+39.01%-1.25%+17.88%+7.83%-8.06%-2.04%-2.72%+14.61%
2026-01-20+18.68%-0.57%+43.76%+1.69%+17.03%+3.83%-9.60%-3.73%-6.78%+12.68%
2026-01-21+20.46%+3.03%+55.38%+2.40%+18.87%+3.81%-10.13%-3.77%-4.06%+16.36%
2026-01-22+20.10%+3.80%+57.66%+1.96%+17.89%+3.98%-8.12%-2.12%-0.08%+20.60%
2026-01-23+20.30%+3.21%+54.69%-1.45%+17.14%+4.47%-6.46%-1.05%-0.15%+15.29%
2026-01-26+20.70%+2.12%+52.12%-2.34%+15.55%+3.59%-5.50%+1.48%-3.23%+15.60%
2026-01-27+24.86%+3.34%+58.75%+4.89%+21.06%+6.47%-4.70%+2.08%-4.18%+13.07%
2026-01-28+25.73%+4.58%+70.77%+6.41%+24.98%+6.73%-5.19%+0.84%-4.06%+10.76%
2026-01-29+26.81%+4.53%+72.06%+4.09%+24.08%+5.13%-12.59%-2.79%-7.37%+10.42%
2026-01-30+19.90%+2.54%+69.70%+2.75%+18.25%+2.28%-13.40%-3.26%-4.29%+6.75%
2026-02-02+22.01%+2.33%+85.39%+6.98%+21.17%+3.79%-14.09%-2.74%-6.21%+7.80%
2026-02-03+19.80%-0.20%+85.26%+8.58%+23.11%+3.29%-16.55%-7.11%-6.17%+4.38%
2026-02-04+13.79%-5.87%+63.22%+6.05%+16.61%+0.27%-18.01%-6.70%-9.72%+6.19%
2026-02-05+15.13%-7.04%+62.71%+9.08%+12.69%-4.01%-22.54%-11.50%-11.68%+1.98%
2026-02-06+22.99%-0.07%+68.84%+20.53%+20.79%-3.74%-20.73%-7.69%-8.59%+5.71%
2026-02-09+24.78%+2.42%+64.85%+27.86%+23.84%-2.47%-18.49%-4.85%-7.20%+6.57%
2026-02-10+24.68%+1.31%+56.93%+24.44%+22.46%-3.12%-17.47%-4.40%-5.45%+5.99%
2026-02-11+29.96%+1.99%+72.21%+20.65%+40.93%-4.49%-19.64%-3.30%-4.77%+2.77%
2026-02-12+26.08%-0.58%+76.82%+17.60%+33.06%-5.19%-20.51%-5.77%-7.26%+0.09%
2026-02-13+28.11%-1.64%+75.76%+16.58%+34.66%-3.37%-20.07%-3.00%-7.18%+2.45%
2026-02-17+27.91%-0.92%+69.32%+19.36%+39.43%-2.96%-21.06%-6.53%-8.69%+5.11%
2026-02-18+29.76%-0.41%+75.90%+20.24%+41.35%-1.16%-20.34%-8.14%-8.54%+9.10%
2026-02-19+29.45%-0.32%+76.67%+25.04%+41.15%+0.25%-20.76%-7.89%-8.45%+11.98%
2026-02-20+32.78%-0.27%+82.28%+29.64%+39.74%-0.92%-21.32%-12.39%-8.43%+8.94%
2026-02-23+32.37%-0.48%+82.09%+30.17%+41.48%-1.33%-24.85%-18.18%-11.09%+9.16%
2026-02-24+36.37%+1.56%+77.97%+32.45%+46.54%-0.14%-23.75%-18.01%-8.97%+9.53%
2026-02-25+39.51%+2.71%+80.88%+38.11%+51.33%+1.16%-21.08%-15.48%-7.19%+7.64%
2026-02-26+34.68%-1.49%+79.38%+30.39%+48.74%+0.28%-19.62%-12.63%-9.15%+9.04%
2026-02-27+32.79%-3.97%+76.77%+33.23%+44.45%-2.53%-21.10%-14.35%-10.50%+7.96%
2026-03-02+33.37%-3.02%+74.66%+45.49%+47.28%-2.92%-20.04%-12.95%-10.32%+6.55%
2026-03-03+26.66%-5.06%+60.36%+32.88%+39.77%-3.84%-18.91%-11.39%-12.74%+4.37%
2026-03-04+29.09%-2.73%+69.34%+31.60%+43.85%+0.53%-17.83%-9.58%-9.73%+8.57%
2026-03-05+26.24%-2.05%+64.85%+26.51%+41.54%+0.48%-16.24%-5.89%-9.82%+7.70%
2026-03-06+18.59%-4.78%+53.90%+18.66%+32.37%-2.26%-15.59%-5.47%-11.78%+5.93%
2026-03-09+24.69%-1.29%+65.62%+28.95%+43.43%-0.86%-15.63%-5.16%-11.35%+8.45%
2026-03-10+26.03%-0.71%+72.22%+32.35%+44.70%-0.33%-17.37%-4.85%-11.22%+5.68%
2026-03-11+27.73%-0.23%+79.84%+31.30%+45.87%+3.05%-17.08%-4.61%-9.32%+7.84%
2026-03-12+21.74%-2.53%+72.49%+24.15%+43.32%+1.43%-16.86%-4.35%-12.17%+2.31%
2026-03-13+21.88%-4.42%+82.39%+25.14%+40.95%+2.21%-18.70%-4.70%-13.01%+2.77%
2026-03-16+24.24%-3.00%+91.15%+27.61%+44.39%+7.13%-17.46%-5.61%-12.04%+4.57%
2026-03-17+26.47%-3.48%+98.88%+28.56%+46.17%+4.65%-17.29%-5.00%-11.22%+4.05%
2026-03-18+24.89%-3.81%+101.98%+33.22%+44.30%+4.03%-18.18%-4.34%-12.66%+0.42%
2026-03-19+26.71%-3.31%+100.43%+42.07%+47.36%+4.49%-18.24%-4.48%-15.44%+0.71%
2026-03-20+23.41%-5.91%+87.71%+31.89%+38.37%+2.83%-19.78%-7.49%-18.18%-2.29%
2026-03-23+26.83%-4.09%+82.70%+35.67%+37.86%+3.04%-18.36%-6.03%-15.31%-0.01%
2026-03-24+30.02%-4.32%+80.94%+44.48%+43.62%+2.59%-21.58%-10.37%-14.83%+0.62%
2026-03-25+29.57%-0.79%+74.97%+44.02%+47.33%+3.61%-21.76%-10.92%-14.18%+0.88%
2026-03-26+20.45%-5.05%+59.78%+31.38%+35.61%+0.54%-22.51%-9.49%-17.26%-0.97%
2026-03-27+19.35%-7.38%+61.62%+31.86%+34.34%-2.46%-25.28%-14.18%-19.54%-6.17%
2026-03-30+14.41%-9.48%+47.67%+21.38%+25.39%-4.15%-24.94%-12.35%-21.00%-7.20%
2026-03-31+22.73%-4.49%+58.95%+31.64%+35.33%+0.22%-22.70%-9.17%-17.34%-1.65%
2026-04-01+26.26%-2.72%+73.32%+39.56%+38.35%+0.26%-22.75%-9.27%-15.22%+0.91%
2026-04-02+25.84%-1.63%+73.75%+47.68%+39.90%+1.74%-21.93%-7.76%-19.82%+0.63%
2026-04-06+28.45%-1.36%+79.31%+43.23%+40.32%+3.29%-22.54%-7.92%-21.55%+0.53%
2026-04-07+29.06%+0.12%+78.19%+47.33%+42.50%+4.67%-22.61%-5.31%-22.92%+0.38%
2026-04-08+41.18%+4.11%+93.68%+60.13%+52.87%+8.10%-23.82%-5.65%-23.67%+2.67%
2026-04-09+44.92%+5.63%+104.54%+62.07%+59.66%+13.49%-26.10%-11.44%-23.15%-0.70%
2026-04-10+46.74%+8.59%+104.61%+69.74%+62.47%+16.59%-27.39%-16.77%-22.41%-2.41%
2026-04-13+47.87%+10.27%+116.94%+71.05%+66.59%+19.20%-24.48%-13.00%-21.64%+0.20%
2026-04-14+50.44%+12.81%+126.01%+72.08%+75.44%+22.95%-23.46%-13.71%-19.02%+6.30%
2026-04-15+48.22%+14.72%+118.19%+69.49%+72.23%+24.00%-19.57%-11.28%-12.85%+11.29%
2026-04-16+47.02%+16.96%+121.19%+76.45%+72.30%+23.92%-18.10%-8.50%-13.52%+9.39%
2026-04-17+50.96%+18.55%+121.36%+80.47%+76.10%+22.16%-17.21%-8.15%-10.92%+12.05%
2026-04-20+51.56%+17.98%+119.05%+83.38%+80.35%+22.16%-17.04%-6.54%-12.72%+13.97%
2026-04-21+52.05%+18.39%+118.74%+81.06%+79.10%+21.89%-16.44%-3.63%-14.08%+12.73%
2026-04-22+56.37%+22.68%+135.86%+86.79%+80.29%+22.97%-14.41%-1.20%-13.83%+13.83%
2026-04-23+54.80%+22.44%+130.28%+85.00%+87.45%+23.14%-18.97%-5.50%-16.90%+7.62%
2026-04-24+61.09%+32.01%+139.88%+89.75%+90.83%+22.71%-17.38%-4.04%-16.33%+7.46%
2026-04-27+57.50%+32.26%+154.68%+82.03%+89.46%+21.56%-16.98%-2.59%-15.80%+6.58%
2026-04-28+50.72%+28.49%+142.33%+70.29%+78.57%+19.00%-16.71%-2.84%-16.39%+4.66%
2026-04-29+49.16%+30.65%+153.21%+78.21%+87.38%+21.08%-17.24%-2.68%-17.10%+1.54%
2026-04-30+53.29%+31.41%+157.36%+85.92%+97.93%+20.82%-19.22%-4.68%-15.14%+7.88%
2026-05-01+53.35%+32.51%+172.60%+91.79%+103.46%+25.41%-16.73%-2.22%-13.10%+9.07%
2026-05-04+51.71%+29.59%+188.38%+93.45%+103.72%+31.47%-15.89%+0.43%-12.72%+9.21%
2026-05-05+55.78%+33.28%+220.23%+98.95%+108.44%+31.68%-17.00%+1.73%-13.42%+8.52%
2026-05-06+65.12%+43.33%+227.65%+98.10%+117.91%+36.57%-17.66%+1.34%-11.34%+10.19%
2026-05-07+60.06%+41.16%+214.68%+85.91%+108.31%+33.28%-12.09%+12.35%-8.43%+7.06%
2026-05-08+65.19%+49.41%+262.29%+91.71%+109.54%+31.77%-11.90%+15.15%-4.75%+8.38%
2026-05-11+66.09%+51.75%+273.80%+112.50%+125.29%+33.14%-12.45%+16.41%-1.05%+6.76%
2026-05-12+61.29%+48.51%+255.71%+104.21%+125.78%+30.79%-13.76%+15.49%-3.62%+6.38%
2026-05-13+64.96%+50.02%+264.12%+116.09%+134.72%+38.45%-14.56%+19.30%-0.99%+4.54%
2026-05-14+68.52%+53.65%+250.63%+115.34%+143.33%+41.14%-13.89%+23.58%-1.43%+3.24%
2026-05-15+61.76%+46.32%+240.91%+107.62%+131.07%+40.19%-11.61%+25.53%-6.11%-0.13%
2026-05-18+54.41%+45.29%+221.85%+93.27%+115.85%+35.56%-10.71%+29.84%-8.83%-0.80%
2026-05-19+52.46%+44.18%+231.02%+97.41%+110.17%+33.86%-10.71%+29.27%-10.14%+0.02%
2026-05-20+58.82%+50.76%+239.96%+103.95%+112.78%+33.67%-10.42%+33.05%-7.22%+3.07%
2026-05-21+63.11%+51.84%+264.05%+117.21%+127.17%+41.14%-10.37%+33.55%-7.09%+6.31%
2026-05-22+65.39%+53.46%+254.66%+119.05%+128.88%+39.47%-9.77%+37.69%-5.27%+7.22%
2026-05-26+74.07%+58.19%+302.15%+120.67%+132.01%+37.64%-10.05%+38.01%-3.59%+9.18%
2026-05-27+71.95%+55.45%+310.08%+118.18%+121.21%+39.13%-11.07%+30.82%-2.08%+9.96%
2026-05-28+70.88%+59.58%+314.41%+117.76%+120.42%+43.90%-8.45%+35.37%-1.69%+16.14%
2026-05-29+68.32%+60.14%+331.12%+115.16%+115.10%+44.31%-1.57%+49.39%-3.10%+14.82%
2026-06-01+71.33%+64.93%+353.92%+119.21%+110.52%+50.27%+4.20%+61.50%-7.52%+16.10%
2026-06-02+82.46%+66.71%+356.67%+157.61%+125.38%+48.30%-0.03%+60.10%-5.78%+13.78%
2026-06-03+84.31%+67.53%+373.91%+151.65%+123.21%+44.77%-4.90%+53.98%-5.79%+15.09%
2026-06-04+85.53%+62.06%+345.92%+155.19%+124.82%+47.50%-5.62%+53.64%-6.95%+21.54%
2026-06-05+68.24%+47.36%+290.90%+125.82%+102.23%+38.21%-8.48%+47.21%-13.06%+13.33%
2026-06-08+76.26%+52.51%+320.27%+141.21%+102.00%+35.69%-9.40%+44.95%-9.07%+15.52%
2026-06-09+77.17%+49.31%+317.17%+123.99%+94.26%+35.98%-11.66%+41.95%-11.79%+15.71%
2026-06-10+73.13%+42.95%+305.20%+121.98%+82.71%+32.63%-12.79%+41.11%-15.15%+14.04%
2026-06-11+88.40%+50.99%+356.49%+137.40%+93.78%+35.90%-13.26%+47.98%-11.24%+19.02%
2026-06-12+92.44%+55.68%+365.17%+142.05%+95.19%+37.69%-14.13%+47.98%-9.63%+18.09%
2026-06-15+99.89%+63.19%+407.87%+157.92%+105.79%+51.91%-12.43%+50.76%-8.58%+23.73%
2026-06-16+89.62%+55.31%+381.24%+136.70%+98.24%+56.69%-13.52%+48.14%-10.02%+25.71%
2026-06-17+94.71%+57.58%+384.54%+139.68%+106.35%+54.91%-16.26%+46.75%-11.86%+26.65%
2026-06-18+104.70%+65.24%+431.21%+150.56%+125.68%+56.49%-17.02%+48.41%-10.95%+30.56%
2026-06-22+109.19%+64.07%+458.00%+162.73%+132.56%+47.49%-19.29%+47.51%-9.93%+25.48%
2026-06-23+92.20%+55.13%+385.05%+139.00%+112.01%+46.06%-18.71%+49.90%-15.14%+26.58%
2026-06-24+91.14%+54.38%+377.81%+142.09%+110.04%+42.07%-19.69%+47.95%-16.50%+31.39%
2026-06-25+101.18%+54.26%+462.19%+147.72%+112.22%+39.48%-21.87%+50.91%-16.59%+35.86%
2026-06-26+93.09%+50.05%+413.18%+135.36%+93.96%+36.86%-16.94%+55.22%-15.57%+43.50%
2026-06-29+107.03%+53.41%+415.13%+151.21%+96.86%+45.53%-16.28%+63.40%-8.42%+46.20%
2026-06-30+117.32%+59.74%+440.12%+160.27%+113.02%+49.99%-14.80%+65.74%-6.48%+46.37%
2026-07-01+97.29%+52.88%+384.22%+138.66%+100.13%+36.97%-11.91%+70.26%-5.43%+49.42%
2026-07-02+81.87%+47.75%+337.84%+117.88%+90.05%+34.78%-11.03%+69.00%-12.51%+51.33%
2026-07-06+84.51%+52.37%+341.82%+122.86%+99.96%+34.18%-11.59%+74.76%-6.66%+52.50%
2026-07-07+73.72%+47.01%+315.44%+106.97%+88.69%+28.24%-10.74%+70.90%-10.41%+48.21%
2026-07-08+76.72%+50.12%+330.29%+109.70%+90.69%+32.60%-11.31%+67.34%-12.38%+42.50%
2026-07-09+82.63%+54.58%+355.45%+123.11%+95.03%+34.00%-11.09%+73.80%-9.60%+48.56%
2026-07-10+82.09%+56.82%+358.86%+121.62%+90.04%+33.16%-12.21%+65.86%-9.33%+40.91%
2026-07-13+74.33%+49.96%+322.18%+106.15%+82.35%+30.24%-10.39%+67.90%-12.22%+38.59%
2026-07-14+79.00%+53.08%+342.17%+111.58%+84.74%+25.77%-10.06%+80.19%-11.91%+40.49%
2026-07-15+80.25%+51.25%+306.31%+99.29%+84.85%+28.53%-9.61%+77.71%-12.29%+40.17%
2026-07-16+74.87%+44.80%+270.61%+83.92%+72.86%+20.02%-8.65%+75.22%-13.04%+34.95%
2026-07-17+69.24%+43.02%+264.20%+84.02%+72.02%+19.51%-10.00%+76.50%-15.32%+34.74%
2026-07-20+67.74%+44.56%+272.36%+89.79%+70.17%+20.50%-8.34%+73.70%-17.82%+27.68%
2026-07-21+80.92%+51.44%+320.83%+104.54%+81.11%+28.86%-10.13%+69.64%-15.74%+32.16%
2026-07-22+78.11%+53.32%+319.62%+104.70%+77.70%+27.01%-13.09%+66.09%-16.83%+29.22%
2026-07-23+77.38%+50.75%+328.05%+104.85%+76.24%+25.82%-14.71%+62.37%-28.91%+28.07%
2026-07-24+68.91%+46.00%+291.70%+86.81%+63.98%+16.95%-13.83%+62.90%-30.39%+23.99%
2026-07-27+64.43%+41.64%+269.11%+78.88%+63.70%+16.52%-10.92%+61.68%-31.24%+23.57%
2026-07-28+55.72%+36.53%+229.65%+63.28%+52.23%+12.61%-10.60%+61.20%-31.64%+24.97%
2026-07-29+46.61%+30.44%+202.07%+52.46%+35.20%+5.84%-8.98%+61.77%-33.67%+21.98%
2026-07-30+62.51%+39.10%+265.03%+74.31%+46.88%+17.30%-3.67%+65.43%-31.32%+26.36%
2026-07-31+63.43%+39.56%+246.67%+80.28%+52.40%+24.86%-2.06%+70.13%-30.80%+24.57%
2026-08-03+66.97%+42.08%+255.04%+92.13%+60.83%+34.02%+1.04%+74.68%-28.38%+29.30%
2026-08-04+78.55%+51.23%+285.54%+113.38%+65.19%+37.78%+6.81%+82.31%-27.21%+30.21%
2026-08-05+73.33%+49.75%+276.12%+105.18%+67.16%+31.90%+5.63%+79.66%-28.50%+37.60%
2026-08-06+73.86%+50.87%+260.42%+108.45%+67.50%+26.12%+1.14%+76.53%-28.95%+35.38%
2026-08-07+76.75%+52.37%+253.79%+121.68%+69.58%+29.59%+3.62%+79.71%-26.94%+44.09%
2026-08-10+74.97%+47.96%+252.82%+103.83%+64.95%+30.52%+7.44%+86.82%-26.43%+51.41%
2026-08-11+80.26%+48.02%+258.05%+105.47%+69.70%+30.40%+5.79%+85.10%-26.00%+50.96%
2026-08-12+87.45%+50.91%+276.54%+120.96%+77.04%+47.52%+3.42%+84.70%-27.17%+52.52%
2026-08-13+87.22%+52.16%+306.52%+113.98%+75.47%+45.14%+6.41%+90.39%-24.41%+51.96%
2026-08-14+86.93%+52.84%+324.56%+117.54%+77.54%+49.77%+5.61%+83.57%-23.89%+46.53%
2026-08-17+93.45%+51.76%+350.59%+128.02%+79.74%+48.55%+2.76%+79.55%-24.55%+48.96%
2026-08-18+81.21%+46.18%+315.11%+106.69%+66.17%+42.72%+3.18%+79.90%-25.09%+44.79%
2026-08-19+73.24%+42.44%+306.61%+102.57%+60.28%+37.55%+3.53%+73.48%-21.92%+112.73%
2026-08-20+73.43%+42.55%+318.99%+109.82%+58.69%+34.33%+3.05%+67.55%-23.26%+95.34%
2026-08-21+72.72%+42.00%+316.29%+105.12%+57.16%+34.34%+4.43%+70.68%-19.31%+108.18%
2026-08-24+69.03%+37.88%+291.11%+97.40%+54.18%+32.74%+3.53%+67.76%-22.41%+98.65%
2026-08-25+70.22%+40.88%+295.82%+106.55%+57.26%+35.73%+3.11%+65.71%-22.12%+113.45%
2026-08-26+69.15%+40.72%+299.93%+113.78%+61.11%+33.95%+4.42%+68.69%-23.10%+107.47%
2026-08-27+71.25%+46.68%+297.37%+116.54%+62.84%+34.41%+11.30%+94.07%-21.10%+107.50%
2026-08-28+63.77%+41.94%+296.66%+102.32%+56.30%+34.51%+11.93%+87.07%-22.45%+96.10%
2026-08-31+62.83%+43.57%+310.88%+103.22%+57.45%+32.80%+11.49%+93.82%-18.18%+94.97%
2026-09-01+58.98%+41.31%+301.82%+95.74%+56.35%+29.85%+9.04%+83.19%-20.82%+98.66%
2026-09-02+60.13%+42.93%+308.78%+92.22%+57.67%+30.66%+6.14%+73.33%-20.62%+96.60%
2026-09-03+59.21%+43.76%+309.08%+91.33%+64.16%+34.78%+9.81%+78.29%-16.31%+96.47%
2026-09-04+67.25%+46.97%+343.47%+103.06%+71.89%+38.13%+7.24%+77.65%-21.27%+92.79%
2026-09-08+72.58%+50.46%+339.93%+112.15%+79.07%+43.02%+5.16%+77.39%-18.14%+91.05%
2026-09-09+71.82%+51.33%+349.36%+116.60%+67.89%+40.06%+5.83%+78.74%-18.21%+85.56%
2026-09-10+67.09%+47.23%+329.01%+106.99%+59.71%+37.15%+5.07%+79.46%-19.16%+84.59%
2026-09-11+68.74%+49.25%+321.61%+110.79%+66.26%+37.93%+5.87%+76.26%-18.74%+88.01%
2026-09-14+56.98%+42.55%+300.09%+89.21%+54.25%+33.69%+9.27%+96.63%-20.18%+95.90%
2026-09-15+55.79%+43.71%+297.97%+90.25%+53.82%+30.55%+8.03%+99.47%-20.71%+101.90%
2026-09-16+56.88%+45.34%+296.82%+102.99%+56.57%+31.89%+7.11%+98.56%-20.38%+105.87%
2026-09-17+60.59%+51.86%+319.01%+107.11%+59.36%+35.83%+7.93%+100.42%-18.57%+127.42%
2026-09-18+66.48%+54.56%+347.49%+115.03%+61.39%+37.31%+6.69%+94.98%-19.00%+127.77%
2026-09-21+72.03%+64.96%+351.75%+125.22%+65.27%+40.38%+9.22%+102.82%-16.55%+136.58%
2026-09-22+76.07%+66.96%+377.42%+126.80%+68.19%+40.97%+8.90%+103.95%-15.75%+140.08%
2026-09-23+74.32%+64.56%+364.77%+123.94%+65.40%+36.25%+10.52%+111.56%-15.48%+135.63%
2026-09-24+74.57%+64.58%+359.03%+121.70%+62.22%+40.25%+10.87%+111.08%-15.96%+155.54%
2026-09-25+77.77%+64.79%+362.30%+125.22%+69.25%+38.96%+12.99%+103.13%-17.26%+158.17%
2026-09-28+77.25%+61.17%+348.68%+117.29%+62.43%+36.29%+11.59%+109.02%-20.52%+156.75%
2026-09-29+81.80%+61.43%+353.06%+126.22%+68.52%+38.42%+11.37%+109.45%-21.54%+160.93%
2026-09-30+81.47%+62.20%+354.18%+125.25%+64.01%+38.92%+12.66%+112.41%-21.10%+158.54%
2026-10-01+85.43%+62.68%+367.15%+137.13%+68.06%+37.33%+13.75%+113.21%-21.26%+150.95%
2026-10-02+91.49%+66.30%+352.47%+143.39%+75.66%+42.62%+13.95%+115.22%-17.60%+151.46%
2026-10-05+92.16%+67.10%+349.53%+143.94%+75.43%+42.45%+14.29%+118.92%-15.79%+169.49%
2026-10-06+86.10%+68.94%+339.14%+155.05%+76.50%+47.80%+14.72%+124.39%-15.35%+138.23%
2026-10-07+82.65%+67.87%+352.16%+151.08%+73.29%+44.72%+14.22%+119.04%-15.99%+136.16%
2026-10-08+78.52%+61.39%+330.64%+135.13%+67.93%+37.96%+14.56%+118.14%-16.61%+133.21%

Sector returns are hypothetical and separate from basket contributions.

How sector returns are calculated

Each sector starts at 0% with its constituent weights normalized to 100%. BOXX and candidates are excluded. This backcast of frozen v1.49.0 has selection and look-ahead bias. It uses adjusted closes without rebalancing, costs or taxes, and is not brokerage performance. SPCX follows the basket’s BOXX-until-entry treatment; other missing history makes the affected sector unavailable. These YTD returns are separate from the 21/63-session mode-change momentum review. Data refreshed 2026-10-09T07:16:15.629810+00:00.

Research watchlist

Candidates under review.

Research candidates have no target weights. Open the list for their status, next question and last review date.

Active candidates

Active candidates · each date is the last research review
SymbolProposed sectorResearch statusNext research checkReviewed
AMBALocal AI / Edge acceleratorsPriority in Local AI reviewX7 sampling to production, customers, recurring cash flow, dilution and the one-time R&D credit.
AAPLLocal AI / Personal devicesPlatform comparisonIncremental upgrades, configuration mix and retention; normalize tariff refunds and valuation.
NXPILocal AI / Industrial embeddedObserve industrial deploymentProduction conversion, content per device and cash flow; distinguish AI demand from the industrial cycle.
INTUAI4Finance / Financial workflowsPriority within AI4FinancePaid adoption, retention, substitution risk and consistent earnings definitions.
NUAI4Finance / Digital bankingPriority within AI4FinanceLoan cohorts, credit losses, funding costs, capital returns and currency risk.
AFRMAI4Finance / Credit decisioningPriority within AI4FinanceFull repayment outcomes, net transaction revenue, funding and tax normalization.
XYZAI4Finance / Merchant and consumer financePriority within AI4FinancePaid conversion, retention, gross profit, credit losses and restructuring effects.
BILLAI4Finance / Financial workflowsNext within AI4FinancePaid retention, GAAP profitability, competition and the rewards presentation change.
HOODAI4Finance / InvestingNext within AI4FinancePaid conversion, net deposits, trading-cycle exposure and one-time gains.
SOFIAI4Finance / Digital banking and wealthNext within AI4FinanceCoach retention, service costs, credit quality and technology-platform monetization.
UPSTAI4Finance / Credit decisioningHigher-risk observationFunding supply, balance-sheet loans, seasoned losses, contribution margin and dilution.
LMNDAI4Finance / InsuranceHigher-risk observationAccident-period losses, reserves, reinsurance, claim-handling costs and cash generation.
SHOPAI4Finance / Payments and commercePriority within commerce sublayerPaid checkout capture, valuation, lending cash needs and dilution.
MAAI4Finance / Payments and commerceCompare with VPaid agent transactions, net fees, services and alternative payment routes.
VAI4Finance / Payments and commerceCompare with MAClient incentives, cross-border growth, alternative rails and overlap with MA.
PYPLAI4Finance / Payments and commerceObserveBranded checkout, transaction margin and operating improvement before buybacks.
DHRAI4SciencePriority in September 19 reviewCommercial automation, consumable demand, acquisition integration and debt.
QGENAI4ScienceNext in September 19 reviewSample-preparation growth, Parse adoption, paid knowledge services and cash flow.
TXGAI4ScienceObserveConsumable demand, instrument use, cash flow excluding settlements, competition and valuation.
POWIPower & cooling / High-voltage GaN and conversionObserve commercialization; no target1250/1700 V production revenue, 2200 V customer validation, AI sales and margin contribution; 33.7× June-quarter adjusted EPS annualized is not a full-year forecast.
ONTOSemiconductor design & manufacturing / Packaging process controlSecond in semiconductor candidate reviewOrder acceptance, Rigaku transaction and cash use, convertible debt and incremental value versus KLAC.
ETNPower & coolingPriority within powerPower-distribution opportunity, overlap with VRT, integration and delivery.
CDNSSemiconductor design & manufacturingReplacement comparisonCompare EDA and simulation value with existing SNPS exposure.
SYMPhysical AIObserveDeployment economics, reliability, customer concentration and contract risk.
CRWVCloud platformsObserveFunding, interest costs, customer concentration and cash flow after capital spending.
ORCLCloud platformsPriority within cloudContract quality, capital spending, financing and valuation after earnings.
SKHYMemory & storageNot added; remains candidateADR premium ~37–39% with the 2.5% conversion cap exhausted; revisit after the premium stays below ~10% and MU / SK hynix results confirm HBM pricing. Any entry would swap within the 12% memory layer.
CSCOData movement & optical interconnect / Enterprise networkingObserve via SPMO rebalanceLegacy campus drag, low AI revenue purity (~8–14%), Splunk integration, lower growth than pure-play interconnect peers.

Tracking is manual; model inclusion requires an adopted version. See the dated research reports and version history for the supporting decisions.

06 / Research

Research reports

Read more →

07 / Model changes

Version history

Adopted model changes, their funding sources and supporting research. These records describe target allocations, not brokerage executions. Posts start with v1.46.0.

Read more →

08 / Questions

A closer look.

Is AI Stock Basket an ETF?

No. AI Stock Basket is an independent model portfolio and research project. It is not a registered fund, exchange-listed security, or product you can purchase.

Are these actual holdings?

The Allocations section shows dated model targets. Actual holdings shows a separate broker snapshot as percentages of invested stocks and BOXX, excluding uninvested cash and pending activity. Account details, amounts and share counts are private. Neither section is a live feed.

Why include a reserve?

The reserve leaves capacity for qualified opportunities and changes with the allocation mode. The model uses CASH as its reserve symbol and BOXX as the designated vehicle.

How often does this page update?

We aim to refresh model market data and the hypothetical YTD comparison each weekend, after the week’s final trading session. Updates are manual; each quote and performance result shows its own data date. We aim to update actual holdings separately each Friday after the US close, from that day’s broker CSV. Until then, the last verified holdings and unrealized gains retain their original snapshot date. Model updates do not require a new holdings file. New model decisions require a new frozen snapshot.

What are the main risks?

The basket concentrates on an investment theme. Company risk, valuation changes, technology shifts, and correlated declines can cause substantial losses. Diversification across AI layers does not eliminate those risks.